Post about winter 2009/2010

[colin]

This was posted in the climate change forum on netweather in September 2009
It talks about a cold winter and reasons why, posted same time as met office posted forecast for mild winter


pyrotech, on 30 September 2009 - 10:26 , said:

So where are we almost a year later?
Another poor summer for most of the UK, the Southeast having done pretty good but the Northwest pretty poor.
The jet stream moved Southwards and caused a washout for many areas and a North - South split became the norm.
A dry September for most and again the South did best. Now Autumn is truly here as we enter head into October.
So whats the winter ahead going to be like from a climate change perspective and what has changed in the last 12 months?
Firstly global emmisions of CO2 have not been reduced so any change from that cause should be not to huge. What has changed is the prediction of the solar minimum ending and a return to active solar sun spot activity.
The experts got this one wrong and we are currently in a very deep solar min. The effects on the climate should now really start to be felt and so i include the reasons why this is signifigant to our climate. Why now and not when the minimum started? How it effects us, and likely effects.

Firstly to show the lag in time between the minimum and the resulting temperatures.
The Lag is around 2 years and the best explanation for why is its an accumalative effect much like the summer and winter in the UK.
The longest day in the Northern hemisphere is around 21st of June. This is not when temperatures peak that comes almost 5-6 weeks later.
Same with winter, shortest day is close to christmas yet our coldest temperatures come later in january or february.
Its the same with solar max and minimums, but the cycle and prossess is much bigger.

The effects of solar mimimum are huge and not fully understood however we do know that solar minimum allows more cosmic rays to reach the earth.
Forecasters and snow lovers look for this to try to predict a SSW Stratospheric Sudden Warming. This is a warming of the stratosphere around the north pole which sends the rotational winds from a normal anti clockwise rotation to a complexed and more random circulation ( even clockwise)
This sends the Jet Stream southwards and gives the UK and many latitudes a better chance of a winter storm.
A solar mimimum allows more cosmic rays from the solar system to enter the Earth's atmosphere and so causing the stratosphere to warm.
We are currently in a deep solar minimum and so cosmic rays are at a very high level, also this solar minimum has gone on for longer than expected and longer than for many cycles. There have ben false starts to cycle 24, perhaps this is cycle 24 and its level of solar activity will remain unusually low throughout its complete cycle but the truth is nobody is really sure.
So the way i see it all.
The solar minimum is still not showing any signs of abating, even if it did today the effects of this minimum would be felt for next two winters, if the minimum continues then the effects increase.
The jet throughout the last 2 years seems to have moved southwards, a likely effect from the solar minimum and high level cosmic rays. This should push more storms southwards and with them lower temperatures during the winter months. We will watch with interest the SSW this year.
Temperatures have risen over the last 20 years so we have a higher starting point, so a frozen Thames is not the kind of level to be expected, but a trend to more snow is likely and an increase in artic ice levels.
Longterm the effects depend on the length and depth of the solar mimimum, It is feasable that climate warming could be reveresd and a prolonged cooling take effect. Although i agree that polution and CO2 is damaging and we should make serious efforts to reduce it i would like to end this by saying that climate change or as i rather say climate shift has been around for billions of years, beyond human life. It is likely that the solar activity of the latter part of the last century has had a massive effect on our global temperatures and less caused by the other effects than many think. Cosmic rays effect Ozone levels too. Maybe this climate shift to warmer cycle was more natural than we thought and a series of prolonged solar minimums will now reverese the warming.
Just a little food for thought.

[colin]

This was posted in same forum on 7th December before the cold spell first hit the UK following a very wet November where flooding had been the issue.


So where are we now
Well cycle 24 is still at solar minimum.
We are in the effects now, normally as the effects of solar min take effect the solar cycle has began to climb. Not this time!
But are we seeing any effects to clarify this?
USA record coldest October in some states, almost all states had colder than usual
http://wattsupwithth...ever-on-record/

Then there is hongkong which had coldest November
http://www.earthtime...les/show/295356, ... years.html


Then europe with record cold December - ok not yet but very possible.

So i see this year showing the start of the cooling due to solar min, i am not alone Noaa mention it in the winter forecast but unsure
how much of effect it will have.

So what can we expect from solar min for winter 2009/2010 ?
Think 80s - mild, cold and very cold cycles.

winter 2008/2009 saw heavy snow in South west UK that made the news.
This year expect snowfall accross the UK with more signifigant falls. Deep penertrating wind chill ( 1987)

I have been critisised previously as this is a weather forecast not climate forecast, i justify it with this.
If i just gave effects that would occur in 10 years time it would take 10 years to prove. I can only show what is happening by showing effects
that occur in months.
Low solar min has huge effects on earth. Effects stratosphere, jet, cloud cover and gulf stream.

This week sees climate conference in Copenhagen, a waste of time?
No, although a active solar activity over last few decades has increased global temps more than humans, there is nothing we can do about solar activity.
I estimate human causes about 10 - 20% of the increase, we can do something about that portion. I do think that certain politicians
have jumped on it to justify taxes and increase income, but not going to get in politics here.

Also we do need to take care of our atmosphere and air we breath.

So i still standby the original forecast of 80s style winter with a very cold europe, snow for UK and with the Solar min continuing i see the effects getting more so
as we move onwards.


Will we see anything signifigant? Yes expect europe to make the news in December. Russia to break record cold for last 10 years.
Uk will see travel disruption during the winter from snowfall. 30 year low in windchill temps?

So low solar cycle continues and effects are just starting to materilise.
So why are temps accross world not dropping like a stone? Water maintains heat longer than air, the oceans will take longer to cool
but air will take the effects of solar min quicker, stratosphere will be effected by solar min due to more cosmic rays reaching earth.

Any comments and constructive critism welcomed.

Pyrotech